The US agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Thursday El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions would prevail along the equatorial Pacific Ocean until October this year, meaning the Indian summer monsoon would not be under the threat of either El Niño or La Niña till the end of this season.
Part of the ENSO climatic cycle, El Nino is known to negatively interfere with the monsoon and in the past, subdued rainfall was linked to the conditions.
“ENSO neutral conditions are likely over the Northern hemisphere during August-October. Later, La Niña conditions increase during the winter of 2025-2026,” NOAA said in its latest monthly ENSO bulletin.
The sea surface temperatures recorded along the equatorial Pacific Ocean in June ranged between 0 and 0.4 degree Celsius. The coupled ocean-atmospheric system in the tropical Pacific Ocean reflected ENSO neutral conditions.
Earlier this month, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had also said that the latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other climate models suggest that these neutral conditions will likely persist till the end of the monsoon season.
On the ENSO component close to home, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Met department had said, “Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are being observed over the Indian Ocean. The model forecast indicates a possible transition to negative IOD conditions during the coming months”.
ENSO, an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon considered as one of the most important recurring natural events capable of altering the global atmospheric circulation, has three phases: warm (El Nino), neutral, and cool (La Nina).
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La Niña is known to positively influence the southwest monsoon and bring normal or above-seasonal rainfall, and El Niño has been linked with below-average seasonal rainfall and even droughts in some years.
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